Stellar's 2024 Forecast: How Soroban Could Reshape XLM and XRP Prices

Stellar's 2024 Forecast: How Soroban Could Reshape XLM and XRP Prices

The Historical Correlation Between Stellar XLM and Ripple XRP

In the world of cryptocurrencies, few relationships have been as intriguing as the one between Stellar (XLM) and Ripple (XRP). Founded by Jed McCaleb, both Stellar and Ripple have carved distinct paths in the blockchain space, particularly in international remittances. An interesting aspect of their relationship is their price correlation. According to data from Macroaxis, the three-month correlation coefficient between Stellar and XRP stands at a high 0.91. This strong correlation has historically provided a unique trading opportunity: betting on Stellar's price reverting to the mean during XRP's price surges.

Diverging Philosophies: Open-Source vs Top-Down Growth

Despite their common origins, Stellar and Ripple have adopted markedly different growth strategies. Stellar has focused on open-source development and grassroots adoption. Conversely, Ripple has pursued top-down growth, incentivizing banks and financial institutions to integrate into RippleNET (now Ripple Payments) and drive traffic to centralized exchanges like Bitstamp. This strategy has included loaning working capital to remittance firms to boost foreign exchange volumes.

Stellar Soroban: A Game Changer for 2024

Looking ahead to 2024, a significant development in the Stellar ecosystem could potentially reshape its correlation with Ripple. The launch of Stellar Soroban, touted as the most advanced smart contract system, marks Stellar's entry into the third generation of smart contract platforms. By integrating learnings from Ethereum and Solana, Stellar Soroban represents a significant leap forward in Stellar's technological capabilities.

Potential Decoupling and New Correlations

This advancement leads to pivotal questions for traders and investors:

Will Stellar XLM and Ripple XRP Become Decoupled?

The introduction of Stellar Soroban could diminish the historical price correlation between Stellar and Ripple. As Stellar ventures into advanced smart contract functionalities, its market dynamics might start to diverge significantly from Ripple's, which has traditionally not focused on this aspect.

Will Stellar XLM Align More Closely with Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL)?

Given Stellar's new focus on smart contracts, it's plausible that its price movements will start to mirror those of established smart contract platforms like Ethereum and Solana. This potential shift in correlation could attract a different class of investors to Stellar, those who are more attuned to the developments in smart contract technology.


As we start 2024, the Stellar ecosystem stands at a pivotal point. The launch of Stellar Soroban could not only enhance Stellar's technological capabilities but also significantly alter its market behavior. Investors and traders should closely monitor these developments, as the traditional strategies based on Stellar's correlation with Ripple might no longer hold. The evolving landscape of blockchain technology continues to offer new opportunities and challenges, and Stellar's next steps could be crucial in defining its role in this dynamic market.

Please note: do not take this as investing advice. (1)